Turn Those Machines Back On!

Get those brokers back in here!

I do trade commodities, but I’m sure as hell not an expert when it comes to the fundamental aspects of certain commodities markets.  Take for instance, the grains.  Would someone please explain to me WTF is going on, and why we just saw a massive dump over the past two days.  The major components of $MOO, also known as the holy trinity of cow shit, $MOS $POT $AGU are getting slaughtered.  It only takes one look at this chart to realize why, it’s the $JJG, a basket of grains.

Now, the volume here means nothing in an absolute sense, this ETF means nothing when it comes to moving the grains markets, unlike say, the awful natural gas trading vehicle that is $UNG.  But on a relative basis, there’s obviously something going on here, this isn’t just any sell off in this basket of commodities, someone holding this ETF wanted out, and quickly.

If you don’t have the ability to see futures charts on your trading platform, I highly recommend you take a look at this cool new Finviz tool.  The whole agriculture space is getting whacked, and it still looks bearish.  I own a piece of $CGA, but honestly, I feel it’s more correlated to the rest of the high flying Chinese stocks than the underlying commodities.  As for $POT $MOS and $AGU, amongst others, I’ve decided to sit it out from here unless we see a rebound in grains prices.  There are too many other trending stocks to be getting whipped around in these.

On to the broader market.

I told ya’ll that Tuesday afternoon’s run up was a trap, and so it was.  Mr. Market punched those buyers in the balls this morning by returning to Tuesday’s lows, after which it proceeded to rip higher, closing close to yearly highs.  I didn’t like it, I didn’t like it one bit.

I wanted to see the market puke, I wanted to see some fear, I saw none.  When it became evident that we weren’t breaking Tuesday’s lows, I stepped in and did some buying, reloading on the profits I had taken in $TSL, adding to $V, $MHS, $DECK, and adding new positions in $ALGT and $INFA.  I didn’t want to step in and buy today, I wanted stuff lower, even if that meant taking more pain in the process.

I sold out of $GOOG today, near the highs, with a profit.  I see no need to be involved in this battleground stock right now, there are too many great others.  I will look to reenter at higher prices, and that doesn’t bother me, I want to see the trend stabilize.  I also sold out of $EDU at a small profit, it just wasn’t moving and I was too loaded in Chinese high flyers.  I also sold out of $JCG for a profit, the trend is bending there.

I’m seeing a lot of rotation once again into healthcare and financials, but woooo nelly was that a rip your face off rally in tech today.  The 20 day moving average continues to be the place where you need to buy stuff, just do it.

I’m a little lost here now with the market having filled the gap down from Monday to Tuesday.  I think we’re in no man’s land and waiting for the next signal.  I will sit on my 10% cash cushion and hope to buy things lower, knowing that if we do explode to the upside I will out perform.

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see the Disclaimer page for a full disclaimer.


blog comments powered by Disqus