The Fear of Cash

What’s the scariest thing to see on your balance sheet right now, no it’s not a toxic asset, it’s cash.  Companies are now starting to panic about holding cash on their books. Funny to think there’s a huge advantage to holding a lot of debt right now in a terrible economy. The market is giving out sized rewards to levered up companies in the form of higher stock prices. Google is buying a company a week, look for Microsoft to start gobbling up smaller players, the cash on their books is starting to look like an anchor to this country, and no one wants to be anchored to the US right now. Was buffet’s purchase of $BNI just a way to get cash off his books and into hard assets?  Buffet can’t short the dollar, unlike Soros, it’s nice to be Soros.

The market gapped what would have been the right shoulder of the head and shoulder pattern we were looking at. The bulls continue to convert on 3rd down every time, only once were they forced to throw in a trick play on 4th down, the July shake out. The $USDX tested the 50 day moving average last week and was rejected hard, we are now testing yearly lows there, along with yearly highs in the equity market.

Volume was anemic today, but that’s no reason to scoff at certain levels being taken out.  Only price pays, and the bulls got paid today volume or not.  The absence of sellers today was amazing, at one point I actually started laughing.  Look at the up / down volume, greater than 15:1, that’s a crazy stat.  No sellers, just bears who are too scared to be first one in the short pool.

It felt as if the bears were about to step in and roll the market all day, but in the end there was no break in the upward trajectory of price.  Momentum is an amazing thing, buying begets buying and selling begets selling.

I on the other hand did enter two short positions today, one in $STRA and the other in $WNR.  I did though miss the opportunity to enter some of the names I had been looking at Sunday night on the long side as they gaped above my entry points.  I’m talking specifically about $UIS.  I see opportunity all over the place right now, unlike last week where I had no conviction anywhere.  I could have taken entries into 20 different positions this morning but held myself back.

I put my momentum book into action this morning at the open, look for the portfolio on the site soon.

In other news, the house passed healthcare legislation over the weekend.  I think I’ve made my feelings pretty clear regarding what should be done here and the myriad of failures on both sides of the isle.  We need healthcare reform, the insurance companies need to be kicked in the balls, and the insured should not be paying for the uninsured with higher rates.  Now to be honest I haven’t spent a week holed up inside a bunker reading this piece of legislation, so I only know the specifics from the crappy reporting done by the news sources I read.  But from what I’ve read, there are good parts to this bill.  Although there are some down right asinine things in there as well, I’m a supporter.  So much of the debate is clouded by fear mongering, a tactic that frankly works, but should be shunned.  Will the senate step up and make this happen, probably not.  Our country is so divided, scared, and unemployed that I don’t see any way for the most chicken shit of us, our reps, stepping up to the plate.

Obama rolled the dice today by giving McCrystal another 40,000 troops to climb mountains in Afghanistan.  I honestly thought this was just a game of chicken between the civilian leadership who didn’t want to look weak by pulling out, and the military leadership who didn’t want to admit that they couldn’t win.  I don’t believe either thinks more troops are going to solve the much larger issue we are facing in the region, but neither wanted to admit the fact that we don’t have the means to solve them.  So here we go, spending more blood and treasure for what?  Does the civilian leadership intend to be in the region for the next 20 years and do what in necessary to build the economy of Pakistan in order to develop a strong central government there?  Honestly I doubt it.  The wreckage is imminent.  Oh, and kind of funny how Iraq still doesn’t have a functioning central government when we’ve got 4 times the amount of troops there.

On that note, enjoy your evening.

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