The Definition of Quagmire
- Posted by Leigh Drogen
- on April 2nd, 2010
Quagmire: A difficult, precarious, or entrapping position or predicament.
It has been my stance, for quite some time now, that the United States’ involvement in Afghanistan represented the definition of quagmire to a T. One of the first post I wrote on this blog, “Those Who Ignore History Are Doomed To Repeat It“, dealt with US involvement in Afghanistan as a whole, and laid out the case that it was a doomed mission to begin with. I was against the invasion of Afghanistan shortly after 9/11 for many reasons, but primarily because the history of success by an invading force in that region of the world had never turned out positive for said invading force. Not only this, but the money spent chasing ghosts through the mountains was not worth the reward of killing people who are instantly replaceable by the ideology which produces them. In other words the invasion of Afghanistan was tantamount to saying that by placing a band aid over the cut of a hemophiliac, the disease would be cured. The whole operation was ill conceived from the beginning, who’s fault it was I honestly don’t care, that’s for other’s to worry about.
To make one thing clear, I am not a pacifist, there is a time and place for war, and not just defensive or reactionary war, but offensive or preventative war. The decision to go to war though should always come down to the expected cost in blood and treasure versus the expected gain, be it treasure, honor, power, influence, or a whole host of other spoils of war.
Tom Friedman wrote an excellent article this past Tuesday which really gets to the heart of the problem in Afghanistan at this point. You can read it HERE, please do so.
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This newspaper carried a very troubling article on the front page on Monday. It detailed how President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan had invited Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to Kabul — in order to stick a thumb in the eye of the Obama administration — after the White House had rescinded an invitation to Mr. Karzai to come to Washington because the Afghan president had gutted an independent panel that had discovered widespread fraud in his re-election last year.
The article, written by two of our best reporters, Dexter Filkins and Mark Landler, noted that “according to Afghan associates, Mr. Karzai recently told lunch guests at the presidential palace that he believes the Americans are in Afghanistan because they want to dominate his country and the region, and that they pose an obstacle to striking a peace deal with the Taliban.”
The article added about Karzai: “ ‘He has developed a complete theory of American power,’ said an Afghan who attended the lunch and who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. ‘He believes that America is trying to dominate the region, and that he is the only one who can stand up to them.’ ”
That is what we’re getting for risking thousands of U.S. soldiers and having spent $200 billion already. This news is a flashing red light, warning that the Obama team is violating at least three cardinal rules of Middle East diplomacy.
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That pretty much says everything you need to know. We are attempting to build a political framework on the back of a society that does not understand certain principals, a socio economic situation within the country that can not support this political framework, and the country’s leader who is at best corrupt and at worst harboring ideologies akin to the people we went over there to throw out of power in the first place.
Do I believe Karzai is an Islamic fascist, honestly I do not. But he knows good and well what plays well with his society and how to manipulate them with double talk. Leaders in the region are masters at saying one thing to the world and another to their street. And for so long the United States has allowed this to take place, especially in countries such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia which it seeks to have constructive relationships with. But after all the money spent on a war that should not have taken place to begin with, I will not sit here and endorse allowing Karzai to act in this manner. If we truly want to push all in with our chips in this region, we’ve got to do it right by setting an example for how leaders in the region should and should not act. If Karzai believes what he says to his street, we should walk in there and shoot him now. The truth is he does not, he is just another corrupt thug who knows that handing over real power to a democratic government means that eventually his time runs out. And at the end of the day, isn’t that what most problems on this earth are caused by, power hungry thugs.
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Leigh Drogen is the founder and chief investment officer of Surfview Capital, LLC, a New York based investment management firm employing an intermediate term long/short momentum strategy. More »
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