In the news!  Tiger’s score card continues to fill up by the hour, how many current or former porn stars is it now?  Look, here’s my take, it’s never right to cheat, but I blame both him and Elin (what a babe) for getting married in the first place, they brought this on each other.  No major celebrity should ever get married in their prime, and no one should ever marry a major celebrity thinking it’ll actually work.  I don’t doubt Tiger loves her, but it’s just not in our DNA as humans to be monogamous, and given the amount of opportunity he has with his status, fagetaboutit.  She may love him as well, but there’s no doubt in my mind she loves the money more.  These sort of things only work when you have two athletes who marry each other (see Laird Hamilton and Gabrielle Reece).  By the way, I have a hamburger bet with @Stein that Tiger and Elin DON’T show up on Oprah together in the next few months.  Look for a lot of Tiger themed porn though.

Obama tried to justify sending 30,000 more troops into the abyss that is Afghanistan in order not to be the president that lost the war.  The administration has no cohesive regional strategy, just the hope that if we sit on the Afghan egg long enough maybe something will hatch.  As you all know I’m no pacifist, there is a proper place for war, even preemptive war, but it must be waged by weighing the risk of loss against the probability of success.  Is Afghanistan Vietnam, NO.  Please put things into perspective people, we’ve lost less than 1/10 the men in both Afghanistan and Iraq combined than we lost in Vietnam.  Is Afghanistan a complete and utter quagmire, you betcha.

Bank of America $BAC repaid the TARP.  I ran into a guy in the locker room at hockey who did the secondary on the capital markets desk at $BAC.  He said the book was mostly filled with guys who already owned large stakes, didn’t want to be diluted, and wanted to support their positions.  I guess the liquidity punch bowl is still not empty.

Everyone hates the banks, what’s new.  Matt Tiebbi is a smart guy, and a good writer might I add, but he makes his living by riding the coat tails of public outrage.  I think you can successfully use his columns to call tops in public outrage at anything.  My guess, after he’s done with Obama he goes for Congress.  The whole thing is a firggin joke.  Look people, I feel like a broken at this point, they gave the banks the money to buy assets and reflate the market.  If they didn’t give them the money, or nationalize the banking system, we were all going to be living on the street.  Yes, Goldman Sachs has made a shit load of money in the past 9 months because they got a piece.  They only got TARP because they had to take it, the treasury forced it on them because they didn’t want to be seen as picking winners and losers by giving some and not others.  The buffet investment wasn’t “needed” either, they took it to calm fears in the market.  Goldman is just playing by the rules of the game, and they are the best at playing it.  Instead of complaining about how much money their bankers and traders make, or that the government financed their trading (which they did), try and investing in their stock, or their funds.  I don’t care how much the average joe schmoe makes, it doesn’t matter, this country is about getting paid your market rate, and the market rate for a guy who can make his firm 100 million dollars in trading profits obviously deserves a percentage of that.  Let the market decided what the percentage is.  I don’t hear anyone complaining about baseball players making bank when the government finances stadiums to hold all those people who contribute to their salaries.

Here is your weekend reading:

How Obama decided to spend more blood and treasury on the quagmire that is Afghanistan (NYT)

More on why you should quit bashing Goldman Sachs and aspire to be one of them (Aiki14)

The mortgage modification program is a complete failure (The Atlantic)

China is winning the race to supply the world with clean energy parts (WSJ)

Turkey wants to take it’s rightful position as power broker in the region, don’t be surprised to see them go after nukes (Economist)

What companies are leading the push for a smarter grid (excellent investment thesis) (Greentech Media)

First person to figure out how to do super cheap desalinization is gonna be a rich and powerful man (Economist)

God bless China for investing in Pakistan, if they won’t send troops to the region, maybe they will help create an economy there (WSJ)

This UStream thing is gonna be huge, HUGE! (CNET)

Media consumption is changing in a dramatic way, so many cool things to come (The Atlantic)

The EPA finally does what’t necessary, calls a spade a spade and labels greenhouse gases a public health threat (WSJ)

Americans are finally starting to pay off the debt binge they went on this decade, good for them, too bad the government is screwed (Business Insider)

The financial transaction tax bill is a complete joke, there is no way it passes, not a chance in hell (WSJ)

The Apple tablet is going to be huge, and it’s coming (Apple Insider)

Consumer credit is still declining, banks know that Americans have no money and will continue to be monster credit risks (Calculated Risk)

Ok, enough with that metaphorical crap.  Look, I had a bunch of gold and agriculture stocks on my radar going into today, the market isn’t allowing me to get long there right now.  I’m not a knife catcher, I’m anything but, I play momentum and trend.  Materials gave it up hard today as the $USDX bounced.  The gold miners $GDX ended down 4.2% with the larger materials sector ETF $XME giving up greater than 3%.  The US Dollar now stands at a very important level, on the precipice of breaking its downtrend and hopping above some major moving averages.

As you can clearly see, the $USDX made a run today pushing up against the upper trend line and strong horizontal resistance.  It failed to take those important levels in the afternoon, which held the market from getting completely demolished.  Each time we have seen this pattern since June the dollar has caved.  Is this the time it breaks through?  I’m not in the business of placing bets, I’m a trader.  I’m going to sit tight here as the dollar gasps for air.  If I wanted to be very aggressive I would put on a whole bunch of material longs tomorrow on the open with tight stops, but frankly that isn’t my cup of tea.  If the dollar fails tomorrow, sit back and relax, then look for a rebound.  If the second run at these levels doesn’t break through, look for a lower high to be put in place, and when it begins to fail for the second time, smash it by getting long the material and energy names.

I’ve got a few names in the play book if that patterns plays out.  $DE, $EGO, $RIG.  I still also like $BX from the long side if the financials can get their stuff together.

So what does the play book look like if the $USDX really starts to run?  I am stalking a short entry in $X, it just keeps banging away at that head and shoulders neckline.  If it breaks 40 we could see some major damage done in that name.

The regional banks look ready to roll over here regardless of what the dollar does.  I am stalking short positions in $ZION, $BBT, and the regional bank ETF $KRE which has put in a large symmetrical triangle as show on the chart.  The resolution of this pattern will say a lot about where the market is going over the next 4 months or so.  We would normally say that these types of patterns are resolved in the direction of the primary trend.  Problem is, the primary trend is not quite evident here.  The $XLF most likely saw a bottom back in March turning the primary trend positive.  We could still see a large giveback of the gains since then, but overall, those lows aren’t likely to be violated.  I am not so convinced in the regional banks as the moving averages aren’t quite as bullish here off the March bottom.  If the market rolls over this is where you really want to be positioned short for some mass destruction.

I took a long position in Aruba Networks $ARUN as it broke resistance at 9.50.  I like the longer term trend here and the long consolidation pattern it has put in here since July.  It is currently battling with a flat 100 week moving average which is about to be crossed from the bottom by the 20 week, a bullish signal.  $ARUN also has not given up the same ground as many of the other mobile internet stocks over the past few weeks.

Stopped out on two long positions today, $APWR and $PCX.

Headed out to the Ranger game, failed at bribing the immigration officer to revoke Redden’s work visa and strand him in Canada, so he will be in the lineup tonight sucking per his usual game plan which consists of playing like a pussy.