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	<title>Leigh Drogen &#187; IBN</title>
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		<title>Momentum Book Update</title>
		<link>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-5/</link>
		<comments>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-5/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 19:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leigh Drogen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALGT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMZN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ANR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ATHR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BUCY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CERN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPLA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CREE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTRP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTSH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DECK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EGO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EVR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LZ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MHS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFLX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCLN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PEGA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RAX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RGLD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RHT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SBAC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ULTA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[V]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VRX]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://leighdrogen.com/?p=1593</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Another week of schellacking for long only strategies.  The market took a bath this week, led by materials and tech, which until Thursday morning made up about 2/3 of my portfolio.  I was playing buy the dip, it obviously didn&#8217;t work.  My cash position at the open on Thursday was south of 5%, I loaded [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another week of schellacking for long only strategies.  The market took a bath this week, led by materials and tech, which until Thursday morning made up about 2/3 of my portfolio.  I was playing buy the dip, it obviously didn&#8217;t work.  My cash position at the open on Thursday was south of 5%, I loaded up and went all in.  When the major indices failed to crack their declining 5 day moving averages, I ran for the hills.  I was upset at myself last week for not bailing on this market when obvious signs of distribution were evident.  I should have taken my exposure down at that time.  I played this week correctly though and I&#8217;m able to sleep well at night knowing that I traded my plan, and executed well.  The fact that I trail the $SPY by a little more than 1 % since 11/9/09 while holding high beta tech and materials names throughout this massacre of the longs, is incredible.  Believe me, I&#8217;m not celebrating negative alpha, but I should be much further in the hole right now than I am given my decision to load up earlier in the week.</p>
<p>As you can see below, investors took materials and tech to the woodshed.  The trend in most, but not all momentum names is busted now, it will take some time for issues to base out and give goo low risk entries to the trend.  If we see a quick bounce back from the high momentum names, I feel it will be shorted into relentlessly.</p>
<p>Some stuff I sold out of this week: $NFLX, $AMZN, $AAPL, $IBN, $IAG, $MHS, $RHT, $RGLD, $CERN, $EGO, $CTSH, $ATHR, $LZ, $ANR.</p>
<p>The Netflix sale is really the only one that haunts me, not holding into earnings was a huge mistake and an emotional decision based on the overall market and my portfolio, not the fundamentals or technicals of the individual issue.  I fell victim to the emotion of just not wanting to be exposed to risk, when I should have traded the stock.  This should be a lesson to you all, not to be overwhelmed by the performance of your portfolio or the overall market when making a decision regarding an individual issue.</p>
<p>Some stuff that I still like.  The education names have held up very well, $DV even had a monster breakout this week.  I&#8217;m holding $CPLA and believe we could see a massive breakout on the weekly chart imminently.  $V still looks good and I&#8217;m happy to own this name until the weekly chart breaks or the government takes their candy away.  I don&#8217;t see either happening in the near future.  I&#8217;m looking to add to my $SBAC position on any strength.  The tower operators may not be the best businesses in the world, but hedgies are chasing them to the ends of the earth off the idea that $T and $VZ need to jack up their networks to deal with the onslaught of mobile devices requiring massive amounts of data transmission.</p>
<p>My cash position is now above 40% and will likely stay that way for the next few weeks.  Stocks need time to heal, and catching falling knives is not my game.  I&#8217;ll also be limiting the number of positions I have on, there are still some good trends out there, and new leadership, but I don&#8217;t believe I can spread myself out to 30 positions in this market while momentum names are getting picked off one by one and shot.</p>
<p>This is a long / short market now, trade accordingly.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="month" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/month.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1594" title="month" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/month.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="150" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="week" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/week2.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1595" title="week" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/week2.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="150" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="port" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/port.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1596" title="port" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/port.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
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		<title>Momentum Book Update</title>
		<link>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-4/</link>
		<comments>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jan 2010 16:17:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leigh Drogen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALGT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMZN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ANR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARUN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BUCY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CERN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPLA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CREE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTRP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTSH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DECK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EGO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EVR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LZ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MHS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFLX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCLN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PEGA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RAX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RGLD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RHT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SBAC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[V]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VRX]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://leighdrogen.com/?p=1558</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oyyy, it was a tough week for long only strategies any way you cut it.  The market trapped the chasers with three major distribution days and then puked for two straight.  I made a calculated decision to lower my beta early in the week but didn&#8217;t significantly raise my cash level.  I still see many [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oyyy, it was a tough week for long only strategies any way you cut it.  The market trapped the chasers with three major distribution days and then puked for two straight.  I made a calculated decision to lower my beta early in the week but didn&#8217;t significantly raise my cash level.  I still see many great opportunities and don&#8217;t believe the market is ready to just roll over into oblivion.  A good shake up is needed once in a while and gives us clues as to what issues will continue to trend and which need to be cast aside.  Use this weekend to run through your names and see which trends are broken and which are showing good relative strength.  The market will bounce next week, don&#8217;t be long the crap, stick to what is still working.</p>
<p>I cast aside $NTAP, $TSL, $HL, $CGA, and $RINO this week.  Notice that three of those names are China plays.  The Chinese market isn&#8217;t acting right and it&#8217;s better to step out of the way while that deleveraging plays out.  The small cap Chinese market was overheated and too many people were making too much money, someone needed to be punched in the face.  I took some pain by not taking profits while they were there.</p>
<p>$LZ was on fire until Thursday when it was obvious that it could not buck the market trend for any long, I took nice profits and reduced the position to 1/3 size.  Winner of the week for sure.</p>
<p>I took some profits in $CREE, how could I not.</p>
<p>I bought the dip in materials this week by adding positions in $RGLD and $ANR.  I&#8217;m not feeling too much pain and believe we are going to see a major bounce there.  I also added to $RBY.</p>
<p>I started positions in $PEGA and $SBAC and added to $AAPL, $ARUN, $CPLA, and $RAX.  I love the education sector here, it&#8217;s relatively uncorrelated to the market and institutions are making big bets on the government pouring money into retraining people through online schools.  I&#8217;ve also been begging the market for a chance to step into $SBAC, a cellular tower company, I&#8217;ll add to it on any market strength, I want a big position if the market allows.</p>
<p>Business service stocks like $RHT got slaughtered this week as investors sold the excellent $IBM earnings.  I still like it up here.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m loving the international banks here as investors flee US banks in fear of government regulation.  My pick $IBN is still squeezing into the apex of a large triangle.  A failure and I&#8217;m out, but I believe it breaks north and catches fire.</p>
<p>Next week is huge with $AMZN and $AAPL reporting, as well as the Apple tablet announcement.  Look for support on the weekly charts after a puke like the one we had this week, step into solid trends, the market isn&#8217;t just going to fall apart and collapse.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="week" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/week1.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1559" title="week" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/week1.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="150" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="momo" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/momo1.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1560" title="momo" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/momo1.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="330" /></a></p>
<p>f</p>
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		<title>Momentum Book Update</title>
		<link>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-3/</link>
		<comments>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jan 2010 22:48:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leigh Drogen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALGT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMZN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARUN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BUCY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CERN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CGA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPLA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CREE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTRP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTSH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DECK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EGO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EVR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LZ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MHS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFLX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NTAP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCLN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RAX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RHT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RINO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TSL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[V]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VRX]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://leighdrogen.com/?p=1510</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An interesting week it was indeed.  We came in on Monday to see the market ripping, it was frothy, and everyone knew it.  Problem was that few were willing to sell into the strength, myself included, for fear of missing out on a melt up move.  I hung on, took some pain, and added a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An interesting week it was indeed.  We came in on Monday to see the market ripping, it was frothy, and everyone knew it.  Problem was that few were willing to sell into the strength, myself included, for fear of missing out on a melt up move.  I hung on, took some pain, and added a little more on Tuesday afternoon.  I didn&#8217;t want to, I wanted to see the market puke, but it was evident that wasn&#8217;t going to happen.  The market trapped the buyers from late in that session on Wednesday morning, found support at Tuesday&#8217;s lows and ripped like no tomorrow.  The dip buyers came out in force for tech.  Thursday felt ominous as we weren&#8217;t able to retake Monday&#8217;s highs and completed a bearish pattern.  I balked at raising cash yesterday afternoon, but should have, and it cost me.  Instead of closing out the week with a major win I&#8217;m going home having given up some hard fought ground.</p>
<p>$TSL and $CREE got smacked around pretty good today.  I bought more $TSL into the fear on Wednesday and then again Thursday, both great entries showing me positive P&amp;L for the day, but adding to my losses as it is now trading below both levels.  I still like the trend, and this is the solar leader.  Profit taking is a normal, but I will be very quick to cut ties.  It closed exactly on the 50 day moving average today, anything below today&#8217;s lows and I&#8217;m gone with my nice profit.  The same goes for $CREE.</p>
<p>$AMZN and $PCLN continue to lag the market as no one is going to be buying these into earnings with the massive run up they saw after the last set.  Expectations are high, but I believe will be met and the stocks will once again be bought.</p>
<p>My materials and China exposure really hurt this week, I&#8217;m fine with the former, not so with the latter.  I believe gold is going higher, but needed a rest, I&#8217;ve been posting the chart with my expectation of the price action.  We need another month or so before gold $GC_F takes off again, and I&#8217;ll continue to build my position in materials.</p>
<p>$V looks great and should break out of its bull flag any day, I&#8217;m loaded up there.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think anyone has enough exposure to healthcare right now, which is why it&#8217;s still going higher.  I would like to have more, but still feel that we are going to see another leg to the tech rally, so I will keep the major part of my exposure there.</p>
<p>I sold out of $JCG and $GOOG this week as the trend in both is bending.  No need to be in $GOOG right now as it is a battle ground stock.</p>
<p>I also cut $GS today, it isn&#8217;t acting how I would like into earnings.</p>
<p>I added positions in $APPL and $EVR.  How can you not be long $AAPL into the iSlate announcement in two weeks, it&#8217;s a game changing product and the chart looks very healthy.  I think people come out of the wood work to buy this stock.  I&#8217;ve traded $EVR in the past and I&#8217;ve got a good feel for it, I love the weekly chart and think it&#8217;s ready to go again.</p>
<p>I also added a position in $ALGT this week.  40% of the float is short and the pattern looks great.  It&#8217;s not a high beta name so it gives me some refuge from the market if we do see a broader sell off.</p>
<p>Remember that this overview does not cover my complete activity or every position, just some stuff I&#8217;d like to highlight.</p>
<p>I still see so many names I want to own exhibiting great trends.  Bearish patterns like the one we are seeing in the indices currently have been broken by the bulls time after time during this rally, I believe that will continue to be the case.  Breakout and breakdowns have both failed, we are churning our way to 1200 $SPX, continue to buy the dips and lighten up on the rips whenever things feel too euphoric, I know I did a little to much this week and paid the price.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="week" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/week.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1512" title="week" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/week.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="150" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a class="lightbox" title="momo" href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/momo.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1513" title="momo" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/momo.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="330" /></a></p>
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		<title>Momentum Book Update</title>
		<link>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.leighdrogen.com/momentum-book-update-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Jan 2010 00:07:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Leigh Drogen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$GS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMZN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARUN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BUCY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CERN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CGA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPLA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CREE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTRP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTSH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DECK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EDU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EGO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GOOG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HMSY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LZ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MHS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFLX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NTAP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCLN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RAX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RHT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RINO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TSL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[V]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VRX]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://leighdrogen.com/?p=1486</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The momentum book under performed a little bit this week as I am heavily loaded in tech and not exposed enough to the materials sector.  Large cap tech is taking a rest here after its amazing run.  Are we topping out or consolidating for the next push?  I feel its the latter and not the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The momentum book under performed a little bit this week as I am heavily loaded in tech and not exposed enough to the materials sector.  Large cap tech is taking a rest here after its amazing run.  Are we topping out or consolidating for the next push?  I feel its the latter and not the former.  Traders have rotated into materials and financials in a large way as gold has stopped going down, crude saw a great run, and the dollar back off the 200 day moving average.  Agriculture is on fire, and I&#8217;m hitting myself a little for not having a piece of $MOS or $AGU, I even wrote about the run that way going to take place for god sake.  I feel that the intermediate term trend in tech is strong though, and I would rather sit out this period in those stocks and wait for it to resume than go chasing stuff that will be in and out, hell it&#8217;s not like I&#8217;m losing money here in the tech names.  I did add $LZ this week as it is currently giving an excellent entry to what is an amazing trend, this gives me a little more exposure to materials.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve stayed away from the steel sector as I don&#8217;t believe we are going to see continued strength from them beyond this push.  I focus the portfolio on stocks that I believe will trend positively for the intermediate term, not just a week or two.  The real money is made by sitting, not trading.  I have not had exposure to coal, and I&#8217;m dissapointed about that.  I had a good opportunity to take a position in $MEE at the end of last week but balked, which was obviously a mistake.</p>
<p>My entry on $ARUN this week was perfect, already in the green by almost 5%.  I took off some exposure to $GS as it has traded straight up for a week now.  It was a heavy position, it is now a bit lighter.  $VRX finally woke up this week, patience really paid off there, I continue to like it going forward.  $TSL and $CREE continue to just move up, there&#8217;s no other way to describe it, these two stocks are unstoppable.  I have greater than a 55% gain in $TSL and have been peeling off bits along the way, which I guess has been a mistake because I haven&#8217;t found a place to reload the boat.  My two retail positions $JCG and $DECK are performing well.  I&#8217;m stalking $URBN which is giving a decent entry right here right now.</p>
<p>I will ruminate on the tech exposure this weekend, it may simply be too high.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/1week.JPG" target="_blank"><img class="size-full wp-image-1488 aligncenter" title="1week" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/1week.JPG" alt="" width="500" height="140" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/momobook.JPG" target="_blank"><img class="size-full wp-image-1487 aligncenter" title="momobook" src="http://leighdrogen.com/files/2010/01/momobook.JPG" alt="" width="500" height="330" /></a></p>
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