Those Who Ignore History are Doomed to Repeat It

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

Why does Afghanistan exert some kind of crazy gravitational force which pulls in all superpowers seemingly at their peak?  I believe the answer to this question is hubris.  Each time the guilty party is of the belief that they have the technology and organizational structure to conquer and pacify this region of the world.  IT CAN’T BE DONE!  I see Afghanistan as being the most remote region on earth where the tentacles of a superpower can reach.  Once inside Afghanistan, all conquers have slowly bled to death as they have become bogged down fighting ghosts in mountains and attempting to pacify a nomadic culture.

The obvious follow on question is, why can’t it be done?  There are two basic reasons why no civilization has been able to successfully conquer Afghanistan without bankrupting themselves and losing their hegemonic status.  Let’s get something straight first, the United States of America should not be looked at as an empire, as the British and Soviets were.  There is a great difference between the way we exert both hard and soft power upon the world and how they sought to directly rule their conquered lands.

The British installed, for the most part, local governments of their liking beholden to the empire and put governors in charge of their oversight.  This was a form of direct rule where the British made the laws, made the deals, and pretty much owned you.

The Soviets operated under a similar structure, only they took it a step further by including a political doctrine, communism.  At least the British didn’t bullshit around with trying to explain why they were raping countries of their natural resources and wealth.  Perhaps the Soviets learned a few lessons from the British and thought that through brainwashing their people they could prevent the type of local insurrection which happens when people open their eyes to the effects an empire has on their country.

The United States of America does not overtly rule any other country.  Now, I say this in the traditional sense, we don’t own anyone.  Do we use our soft power to influence the political and economic structure of other sovereign nations, sure.  Do we go to war and “attempt” to conquer nations from time to time (Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, blah blah blah) sure we do, but at the end of the day we get out and leave them, mostly on their own.  Do we attempt to install a democratic structure of government with a capitalist economic system, sure.  But at the end of the day, we leave, and they can say piss off at any time.  This is why the United States of America should not be labeled an “empire”.

And now we come back to the question of why no superpower has been able to successfully conquer this land from hell.  The first answer is simple, it’s the terrain.  Afghanistan has been described by many the most desolate and unforgiving place on earth which humans live.  It is a land of rock and desert, not much else.  The mountains are high and there is only one pass which leads out of the country to the north.  No conquering force will ever know this terrain as well as the locals, no matter how long they stay.  The ability to supply an army large enough to conquer this land cheaply, is near impossible given that it is land locked and has no resources of its own.

The ability to fight, conventionally or not, with the type of structure which the American military is built on, is impossible in this land.  The British sported an advanced communication and logistics system, the Soviets rolled in their tanks and had their Hind helicopter gunships, and even we now have our Predator drones.  The Soviets put more that 100,000 troops into Afghanistan and quickly learned that the more targets they gave the Afghans to hit, the more pain they felt.  Of course more Afghans were killed by the Soviets than vice verse.  But ask yourself this question, how much does a oxen, a few rifles, and a rocket launcher cost opposed to a Hind helicopter gunship?  The more gun ships the Soviets put in the air the more pain the Afghans inflicted on their coffers.  The cost of one gunship is about 15 million dollars, I’ll let you guess how much the oxen cost.

I can go on about why with the current structure of our military this feat is no feasible, but I’ll stop here.  The military historian Thomas Barnett writes about ways to solve this structural issue.  Foremost is his idea to split the military into two separate forces, one designed for heavy combat operations, a la shock and awe, and the other designed as a stripped down military and civil police force which would oversee the pacification and reconstruction of a country.  The former would be comprised of heavy machinery and technology, the ladder would be lighter and smarter, having intimate knowledge of the population and terrain.  These people would also be life long military servicemen, living permanently in theatre throughout the conflict.  They would be older in age, +30, and far more numerous than the heavy combat force.  This will happen eventually as the United States of America ventures again and again into parts of the near east and Africa over the coming century in order to clean up failed states.

The second reason Afghanistan is an unconquerable place has to do with its people.  I am of the belief that all people deserve a free and fair system of governance where their rights are protected.  The problem here is that the majority population which comprises the Afghani people is made of nomadic tribes.  For thousands of years these people have lived in a world where their tribe was all that mattered.  Central governments are a farce to them, as they should be.  Even now as 60,000 American troops fan out across the country, only a tiny percentage of the population has come under thedeirection fo the central government in Kabul.  Our conventional thinking of what a nation state is does not compute with these people who have lived independently from a central government forever.  Of course there is a certain percentage of the population which has been exposed to political thought from other cultures and wishes to participate.  At the end of the day though, there is no real  traction and won’t be any until a new generation grows up connected to the internet from birth.

Our intentions in Afghanistan may be pure, there certainly isn’t anything there we want, besides Bin Laden.  Our military though is not designed for this fight and will fail just as superpowers of the past have failed and crumbled under the weight of Afghanistan’s baren peaks.  We will slowly bleed to death as the British and Soviets before us, until we bankrupt ourselves.  It will be interesting to see what stance China takes on this matter.  For now they are happy to sit and watch us wallow in this mess, let the cross eyed midget dictator in North Korea prodd us annoyingly like a 2nd grade brat, and gobble up oil contracts around the world.  At some point though they will be scared that our misadventures will turn into losses for them as we print our way out of this fiscal nightmare.

I am not a pessimistic person, but sometimes looking at the reality of the situation can give you a good slap in the face.  It’s time we took more than a 10 second look at the past here in America and learn from those who failed before us.

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