Positions Update

As I was preoccupied with helping my buddies at StockTwits ring the NASDAQ bell yesterday I wasn’t able to give an update here. I’ll separate my views on the market from what has gone on with the portfolio, this post will serve as a positions update, the next my views.

We were stopped out of the short in $SAFM yesterday as it ran through our stop on the open. As I said a few days ago, above 41.10 that thing was going, and it did. It may still find resistance at the 20 day moving average, where it stands now, but the downside momentum is gone and so are we.

We took a position in $V today as it came across the screens. I like the look of this breakout and wanted to add some financial exposure to the portfolio. $V puts the portfolio fully loaded to the long side with 12 long positions total. I would like to add some short exposure but must go with what the market gives me, and right now the market isn’t giving any short entries. Remember that I am not playing support and resistance within a range, we look for trends here and the market is trending up, it’s that simple. I am watching $RVBD very closely for a short entry so keep posted.

On the short side, $NOk gapped big today and finished up 4%. I’ll take pause on this one above 13.35, but still believe that the momentum to the downside will hold. $DRI is at a crucial point which interestingly enough coincides with the stop at 33.95. If it breaks out we are out, simple enough. $PETM has been grinding around between 20 and 20.50 for a week now while the 5 day moving averages catches up with the large gap down. It seems to be putting in a nice bear flag on the hourly chart. $AMAG was interesting today as it found support at its now rising 5 day moving average and blasted off. Day traders have been running up every small cap boitech they can find and today they tried $AMAG. After making it from 42.50 all the way to 44 by 11AM, $AMAG showed its true colors and gave everything back plus some by the end of the day. The action this afternoon here makes me even more certain the trend is down.

On the long side, $JBLU, $LYV, and $TTWO continue to perform well. $TTWO finally closed above its 200 day moving average and looks ready to rock. If $ERTS and $GME can get out of their own way for a couple days $TTWO could really fly. $SNHY and $HUN are also showing nice patterns and profits. Monday’s purchases are still seeing a lot of red while the pullback in commodities has weighed on this group. $AA is having a hard time conquering the 200 day moving average it has been fighting with for over two weeks now. This area also represents the last large resistance before a clean reverse head and shoulders breakout on the daily chart going back to October. If it breaks through here there is much clean air all the way to $22. $CF has shown good resiliency while many of the agricultural names consolidate around breakout levels. I’ll throw $COG, $MBT, and $USL in the same boat as all three are linked to crude oil, $MBT being a play on Russia, which again is linked to oil. More on crude oil in market musings post.

Overall I feel that the portfolio is well positioned for a further rally in commodities. Check the trading book for a more detailed view on current positions.

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