How Does The Estimize Community Stack Up For Apple’s Q1 2012 Report
- Posted by Leigh Drogen
- on January 16th, 2012
Apple (AAPL) reports Q1 2012 earnings on Tuesday January 24th. Over 70 Estimize community members have published their earnings per share and revenue estimates, along with some great analysis. There are some interesting insights we can pull out of the data as the estimates and analysis cover an extremely wide range.
For the most part, community estimates are clustered between 9.5 – 11.0 EPS and 37 – 40B in Revs. We do see some major outliers though from trusted community members we’ve spoken with. A few estimates fall above 45B in Revenue and above 11.5 EPS.
Once again the Estimize community is expecting Apple to report above the Wall Street consensus. Earnings per share consensus for Wall Street comes in at 9.82 while Estimize falls at 10.28. Revenue consensus for Wall Street comes in at 38.15B with Estimize at 38.87B. Both the Estimize community and Wall Street missed the dip in Apple numbers last quarter and expect the company to more than make up the difference as consumers bought up the iPhone 4s at a breakneck pace.
As for the analysis, most are bullish on iPhone 4s sales as well as holiday iPad 2 sales. A few community members mentioned big beats and guidance raises by some Apple suppliers, signaling that revenue growth will continue to be strong.
On the low end, there are worries about consumers waiting for iPhone 5 and iPad 3, as well as competition from the cheaper Amazon Kindle Fire tablet. Aris David, the most accurate community member last quarter who called the big miss also notes that a stronger US Dollar may impact overseas sales which are an increasing part of Apple’s revenue mix. There are also some fears of higher costs in supply chain transportation eating into earnings.
We’ll find out on the 24th who called it best and how the market handles the report. If you haven’t yet made your estimate, hop over to Estimize and punch it in now.
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Leigh Drogen is the founder and chief investment officer of Surfview Capital, LLC, a New York based investment management firm employing an intermediate term long/short momentum strategy. More »
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