Grab Your Cojones and Buy Materials

Let’s begin tonight with a little chart review.  A few weeks back I posted a weekly look at the $XLB which was coming into long term resistance at the $35 level.  I said at the time that I though we were due for a rejection from that level, and that it would take a few weeks, if not a few months for the market to regroup and break through.  Here’s where we stand on the chart tonight.

Materials were firmly rejected from that important long term level and have now spent the better part of three weeks regrouping.  We aren’t breaking through any time soon, but I believe based on this, and many of the daily charts, that you can buy this dip in materials with a close watch on the US Dollar.

The materials trade has not been one for the faint of heart.  It’s been a buy the dip market, traders playing breakouts have had their asses handed to them time and again, especially in the gold miners $GDX.  You’ve got to buy terrible looking patterns at their most bearish that stay within the intermediate term trend, which is up.  Remember that big big boys are playing in this space, and most mom and pops will lose money as their positions get whipped around.

The $USDX is threatening to break through the 200 day moving average which would be a very bullish sign for the greenback.  This is going to keep a cap on gold $GC_F and other materials, but I don’t believe it’s going to prohibit the materials sector from exhibiting strength.  This is of course unless the $EURUSD completely falls apart and we have a full blow European debt crisis on our hands in the form of a Greek default.  I don’t see this as likely.

I’ve posted below a bunch of charts from the materials space which are showing decent setups right now to the long side.  These come from my momentum watch list, but are not necessarily the strongest of the bunch, just the ones showing the best setups tonight.  Have at it.

ANR showed good strength today closing above the 20 day. I like the coal industry and think you can get long this name with a stop under today's low.

ANR showed good strength today closing above the 20 day. I like the coal industry here as there is no chance in hell a clean energy bill is going to get passed, although I would like to see one. I think you can get long this name with a stop under today's low.

slammed into the 50 today but held, stochastics are in the basement, get long at the open with a very tight stop.

slammed into the 50 today but held, stochastics are in the basement, get long at the open with a very tight stop.

AUY hit the 200 day and bounced hard. That 200 day also represents an ascending trend line. You know the drill.

AUY hit the 200 day and bounced hard. That 200 day also represents an ascending trend line. You know the drill.

BUCY not in the materials sector but is very correlated. Great bull flag here above the 20 on light volume, get long and strong.

BUCY not in the materials sector but is very correlated. Great bull flag here above the 20 on light volume, get long and strong.

Backtest of the descending resistance line, looks real good here.

Backtest of the descending resistance line, looks real good here.

Very interesting pattern developing here, same triangular consolidation.

Trend line and 50 day, man up and buy the dip.

Trend line and 50 day, man up and buy the dip.

I don't see many great setups in the energy space, but this flag looks awesome, my favorite energy play right now.

I don't see many great setups in the energy space, but this flag looks awesome, my favorite energy play right now.

Still in a big flag, buy the dip and run like hell on any further weakness.

Still in a big flag, buy the dip and run like hell on any further weakness.

Loving MEE here, nice wedge, nice trend line, get some.

Loving MEE here, nice wedge, nice trend line, get some.

Same chart as MEE.

Same chart as MEE.

Backtest of the breakout level, good support and on the 50 day, I'm adding to mine in the morning.

Backtest of the breakout level, good support and on the 50 day, I'm adding to mine in the morning.

200 day, buy the dip, it looks ugly but it's the only way.

200 day, buy the dip, it looks ugly but it's the only way.

Nice flag above the breakout, going much higher.

Nice flag above the breakout, going much higher.

Similar to PCX and MEE, I like it with a stop below the 20 day.

Similar to PCX and MEE, I like it with a stop below the 20 day.

Pure momentum, love this stock, stop out below the 20 day.

Pure momentum, love this stock, stop out below the 20 day.

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