Eddie and the Dollar

Quick post tonight as I’ve been running around all day it seems.  It’s officially winter in NYC this week as I wonder, as I do every year, why I moved back east from San Diego.  To top it off I watched a little of the Eddie Aikau contest held in Hawaii and had to dig my board out of the closet just to smell the wax.  The ocean exerts a huge amount of emotional gravity on me, it’s hard to escape.  Andy Irons followed in his brother’s footsteps by pulling into an amazing shore break barrel, but didn’t get the win, it went to Greg Long with Kelly Slater taking second.  The conditions where epic, the picture to the right is of Kelly Slater on one of the SMALLER sets of the day.  As Always the contest is more about the surfing community and purity of the sport than it is about competition, but someone has to win, and deservedly so.  Congrats to all of the contestants who have far bigger balls than I.

The market had an orderly sell off today, no big fireworks.  Look for the next important level of support to be tested, which is the 50 day moving average.  I believe dip buyers will show up there in force, the question is, will the real sellers, the institutional sellers, smack the market back down after a one or two day bounce.  This will be the real test, if the 50 day low test is taken out, it could be on like donkey kong for the short sellers.

The US Dollar did something this afternoon that I haven’t seen in a long time, it slowly, methodically, was bid up all afternoon on strong $DX_F volume.  I’m not going to pontificate on why traders are selling the Euro, but it’s happening, and you better be paying attention because the carry trade is heavily crowded right now and can unwind in the blink of an eye.

Now is the time to be super defensive, I would look to buy the dip at the 50 day with very tight stops, and watch closely after the bounce.

Off to hockey, yes hockey at 11:30 PM, peace.

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