Does It Really Matter Why?

Was it the $BAC secondary announcement, how about the trader tax, or maybe even the jobs number tomorrow?  Who gives a crap.  All I know is that breakouts in either direction are being mean reverted, and quickly.  This is not my type of trading, which is why I’ve been mostly silent now for about a month.  I took a stab at a short day trade in $PNC yesterday and covered at the close even as it didn’t fail as I was expecting.  Well, just take a look at the chart.

Such is life.

This market is all about selling the rips and buying the dips, and sitting on your hands the rest of the time.  I was really only watching two things today.  the 5 day moving average on the $SPY in red at 111 was your bogey.  Once the market broke through it was lights out.  We closed the day right at support, the middle of the range, the high from Dubai Friday.  Is this the start of a, from failed moves come fast moves top?  Maybe, but the only person qualified to call tops and bottoms is Hue Hefner.

The only other thing I was really watching today was the US Dollar $DX.  Amazing how these patterns play out, we saw the dollar base out in the early morning, rip higher, put in a large symmetrical triangle, hit the moving average, and take off.  It was really a thing of beauty.  I’m expecting the $USDX to move back towards the top of its downtrend channel, for a chart check out my Chart.ly page.

Make sure that you are following my Twitter account, or at least reading through the Twitter stream on the sidebar of the blog, I try not to repeat commentary in the blog posts that I tweet, as well, most of my charts are posted to Chart.ly and not the blog.

By the way, my condolences to @The_Real_Fly for his failed melt up call.  As you know I’ve made a few here, all failed.  The funny thing is that both times I made them I added the caveat that I had not gone all in long equities and put my money where my mouth was, probably a sign that I didn’t really believe myself or was just talking out of my ass.  Either way, if I had really had the conviction that we were going to melt up I would have put the chips on the table, so take that for what it’s worth.  The Fly is one of my favorite follows in the investment blogging world, his insight is very valuable and his alter ego act is just plain hilarious.  If you aren’t reading his blog you’re missing out.

Last note of the night, my Rangers officially blow.  Sather put together a great team in the off season, and Torts came into the season with a plan to skate these guys to death.  The team has speed, youth, talent, and size.  But with the condensed schedule I worried from the start that Torts’ strategy of pedal to the metal hockey was going to wear them down way too fast.  And so it was, they came out of the gate on fire going 8-1 or something like that, they are now 13-13.  A few guys have gone down with injuries and Sather is now scrounging around the waiver wires for center ice men.  WTF!  Call up the kids from Hartford and let them play, the season is young and fresh legs is the key.

Have a good night.

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