Armistice

It seems as if the profit takers are done and we have an armistice in the market.  High momentum names have gotten crushed and many may be mortally wounded, their trends busted.  I still see some great ones out there though.  I don’t believe shorts have really taken control yet, which is why we are sitting in suspended animation today, buyers not willing to stick their necks out yet, shorts wanting a quick run up to enter at better prices and set better stops.  I’ve got two scenarios drawn out below.  There is a third, the massacre scenario.  It’s not drawn out here, but the gist is that we could fail big time tomorrow, cutting through Friday’s lows, and just continue to melt down into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon.  I don’t believe this is likely, but you have to prepare for all possibilities.

The best scenario for the market sees us putting in a tight range day today, followed by more calm tomorrow morning.  Buyers get antsy and begin to bid, the market races high in the afternoon on strong volume.  We see a rejection on light volume at the declining 5 day moving average, followed by a break through on Wednesday after the fed as the market gets bid up on a Bernanke reappointment and the knowledge that rates aren’t going anywhere.  Thursday sees a retest of the 5 day, and then we are off to the races as buyers step in with conviction and tight stops being able to quantify their risk.  This scenario would be very healthy for the market as it would be viewed as just another dip buy like the one in November that shook some people out as well.

The negative scenario for the market sees a big bid into tomorrow morning followed by a smack down mid week.  We churn around into the end of the week and shorts come in as they are able to set stops above the mid week highs.  This could lead to a complete break of the trend in the market and a lengthy pullback.

Let the price action be your guide and stay away from being biased to one side or another, these are very important days as market participants look for clues.

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