It’s hard to believe but today marks the 2 year anniversary of the launch ofEstimize.com.
The community and the platform have come a long way, and I want to take a second to reflect on where we’ve been and share a bit about where we’re headed.
When we launched the platform if was very much an experiment, straight out of a Daniel Kahneman behavioral economics study. Who could really know ahead of time if opening up a platform for fundamental equity estimates to the entire financial ecosystem would result in quality data, or whether anyone would even contribute? It was an experiment in every sense of the word, and we’re thankful that it worked.
Two years later our community of 17,000+ registered members and 3,200+ contributing analysts cover 900+ stocks each quarter. More than 65% of the time our consensus numbers are more accurate than the Wall Street numbers as provided by Thomson Reuters IBES, and the Estimize Consensus is more representative of true expectations in the market than those IBES numbers, both claims independently verified via an academic research paper from Rice University.
The community now includes not only a broad range of hedge fund, asset management firm, and mutual fund professionals, but an insanely awesome crowd of independent analysts, non professional traders and investors, as well as students, and industry experts. And more recently we’ve begun to bring in large sell side firms as well with an average of 20 analysts from each firm contributing. We’re not quiet about the fact that we’re running an end around on Thomson Reuters IBES and capturing all of the data they have as well so that we can own the whole pie.
We brought on Vinesh Jha, the former Head of Quantitative Research at Starmine (bought by Thomson Reuters in 2008) and the massive quant fund PDT Partners, who not only helped us provide our quant clients research around how to use our data, but was a major part in building our Select Consensus and User Confidence algorithms.
That analytics layer along with all of the alerts and notifications on the platform have added a ton of value, and we see it every day in our user engagement and user retention numbers.
So where do we go from here? In the next few months you are going to see us roll out new and expanded user profile pages, a new rankings page, a much better guided experience on the platform which will keep analysts on track with what they should be looking at and making estimates on, and the things that I’m excited about the most, two new data sets to estimate on.
Estimize began as a platform for creating EPS and Revenue estimates for public companies, but the infrastructure and community we’ve built here were designed to go way beyond that. We think of the platform as the place where future expectations for a whole range of data sets can be crowdsourced, filtered, ranked, and rated. We’re about to take our next step towards that, which for me is extremely exciting.
I want to mention one other thing.
When we started this company and launched the platform, I personally told many of the early adopters that there wasn’t going to be much value for them in the data set for at least a year, maybe more, but that if they contributed and stuck with it, eventually that data set would be extremely valuable to them. Over the past year we have without a shadow of a doubt reached that point, and while there is no direct incentive to contributing to Estimize (no give to get model, no monetary reward), there is huge benefit in being part of creating a better data set and incenting your peers to do so with you.
I want to thank our early contributors, and all of our contributors, for believing in the philosophies that are core to the Estimize platform, and for believing that their effort would be worth it. Our platform is completely free, and will continue to be completely free for a long time because we don’t want to put any friction between us and our community members getting value, or sharing their data. I think it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the value of our company is completely predicated on the orthogonal data set we aggregate and the analytics and intelligence we provide on top of it. The value of our company is not dependent on the few hundred dollars we could require of each individual using our platform right now. So we will continue to provide a better platform in service of building a better deeper data set.
Thank you for being part of this experiment with us, we’re so excited for where we’re headed in the next 2 years.
Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see the Disclaimer page for a full disclaimer.
The Smarter You Are, The More Roadblocks You’ll See
Posted by Leigh Drogen on December 1st, 2013 at 10:35 pm, Comments: 0
This evening, Joe Weisenthal, the Executive Editor at Business Insider, and a friend of mine, wrote what amounts to a mea-culpa for his relatively unthoughtful Bitcoin piece a few weeks back that got a lot of play. It’s irrelevant what my view on Joe’s piece was, but it is important how his thinking about the [...]
Is Bitcoin a Commodity, Currency, or Technology?
Posted by Leigh Drogen on November 27th, 2013 at 10:07 pm, Comments: 0
I got a call from my mother this afternoon asking me if she should buy Bitcoins with her probably too small for her age retirement account. She is an intelligent person, but when it comes to money and markets doesn’t have a clue. She is the greater fool (sorry mom it’s true). My first thought [...]
Why I Bought One Bitcoin
Posted by Leigh Drogen on November 16th, 2013 at 4:41 pm, Comments: 0
A few months ago, after the first so called “crash” of Bitcoin, I bought one. I bought one Bitcoin primarily because I wanted to have a hands on understanding of how the thing worked. People are inherently afraid of what they don’t understand, and when you mix money with math and technology, three things very [...]
On Bloomberg TV Talking Twitter and Tesla Estimates
Posted by Leigh Drogen on November 6th, 2013 at 1:12 pm, Comments: 0
I joined Deirdra again yesterday on Bloomberg TV to discuss estimates for Twitter and Tesla.
Estimize Triples Traffic in Three Weeks
Posted by Leigh Drogen on October 27th, 2013 at 7:22 pm, Comments: 0
Every company has its DNA. Every founder or senior member of a startup brings their unique experience, expertise, an outlook to the table, and will lack many other necessary skill sets. Over the course of my time in the startup world, about 5 years now, I’ve learned two extremely important lessons about the DNA of [...]
Bloomberg TV with Deirdre Bolton
Posted by Leigh Drogen on October 26th, 2013 at 5:02 pm, Comments: 0
I had the awesome opportunity to join Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg TV Thursday to chat about Estimize and a few upcoming earnings reports.
Here’s Why J.P. Morgan Gladly Gave The Government 13 Billion Dollars
Posted by Leigh Drogen on October 21st, 2013 at 1:11 am, Comments: 0
I was trained to think macro. Not in the sense of investing from a macro perspective, but to think about how the world works from a macro perspective, instead of focusing on the disturbances amongst the trend. You’re going to see a lot of headlines this week about all of the horrible things J.P. Morgan [...]
How Did Estimize Come Within $2.5M of Twitter’s Q3 Revenue Print?
Posted by Leigh Drogen on October 21st, 2013 at 1:00 am, Comments: 0
After making its S-1 filing with the SEC public a few weeks back, Twitter filed an updated to its doc last week which included Q3 revenues for the quarter ended October 1st. As the company prepares for its IPO, these revenue growth numbers are being closely scrutinized, Twitter’s valuation will be heavily dependent on whether investors believe [...]
Declaring Email Bankruptcy
Posted by Leigh Drogen on October 9th, 2013 at 10:44 pm, Comments: 0
Tonight I really wish I could declare email bankruptcy and start fresh. I use this plugin called Active Inbox for Gmail where you can mark every email as either something you need to take “Action” on or something you are “Waiting” on. Action for stuff you have to do, Waiting for stuff you are looking [...]
Leigh Drogen is the founder and chief investment officer of Surfview Capital, LLC, a New York based investment management firm employing an intermediate term long/short momentum strategy. More »
- Two Years of Estimize
- The Smarter You Are, The More Roadblocks You’ll See
- Is Bitcoin a Commodity, Currency, or Technology?
- Why I Bought One Bitcoin
- On Bloomberg TV Talking Twitter and Tesla Estimates
- Estimize Triples Traffic in Three Weeks
- Bloomberg TV with Deirdre Bolton
- Here’s Why J.P. Morgan Gladly Gave The Government 13 Billion Dollars
- How Did Estimize Come Within $2.5M of Twitter’s Q3 Revenue Print?
- Declaring Email Bankruptcy
- December 2013
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